Winning 1 point against Spain, Germany's chance to qualify for the group stage is much brighter than in the first match, but they need to ensure 2 conditions to be able to continue.
Conditions for Germany to continue
Undervalued than Spain and led, Germany played bravely and regained 1 point, opening the opportunity to continue. Let's look at the ranking of this group, all 4 teams have a chance to qualify for the group stage, whereas all 4 teams are at risk of being eliminated.
According to FIFA's ranking criteria at the 2022 World Cup, the positions of the teams will be calculated according to the score, difference, number of goals, and then head to head. In other words, Germany only needs to overcome the Japanese difference to be ranked above, and a direct loss to Japan will no longer be an issue.
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The situation of Group C before the final match
For Germany alone, they will face Costa Rica in the last match and will surpass the Central American representative on the rankings if they win. Germany is 2 points behind Japan and 1 unit difference, so they need to ensure the following 2 conditions to be able to continue.
- Condition: Must win Costa Rica in the last match
- Eligible conditions: Due to the loss of self-determination, the fate of the German national team will depend on the results of the two teams Spain vs Japan.
If Spain is determined to win against Japan to ensure the first place as confirmed by coach Luis Enrique, Germany only needs to win regardless of the score to continue. At that time, Japan will end the group stage with 3 points, while Germany has 4 points.
If Spain draws with Japan, the Asian representative will then have 4 points and a difference of 0. At this point, Germany needs to win Costa Rica with a difference of 1 goal but must score more goals than Japan in the draw with Spain , because if equal to Japan in both score, difference and number of goals scored, Germany is still ranked below because of confrontation. Therefore, in order to ensure the next place in this case, Germany needs to win by 2 goals from Costa Rica.
If Spain loses to Japan, now Japan will continue and Germany will have to compete with Spain itself, overcoming the gap of 8 units difference. If Spain loses to Japan by the minimum margin, Germany must win 8 balls.
In short, the task for Germany to continue is to win and win boldly. The chance for Hansi Flick's teachers and students will be higher if Spain wins Japan in the last round.
Of course, as mentioned above, all four teams in Group C have the opportunity to continue and be eliminated, even Spain. It is not excluded that there will be a crazy scenario as follows in the final match: Japan wins Spain, Costa Rica wins Germany, then both European giants will be eliminated.
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